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Prediction for CME (2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-21T18:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24720/-1
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-04-21T17:30Z visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304, as well as STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery near the vicinity of Active Region 3283. An EUV wave is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 18:00Z, with an associated M1.7 flare peaking at 18:12Z. Post-eruptive dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 18:15Z. Arrival of the shock of this CME at L1 is marked by an abrupt jump in total magnetic field to 27 nT and in solar wind speed from ~380 to over 500 km/s (with further increases to 34 nT and ~600 km/s respectively). There were several bouts of negative Bz, with the maximum negative value of -32 nT. The flux rope seems to arrive around 2023-04-24T01:19Z and is marked by smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-04-23T17:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-24T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.5
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Apr 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 22-Apr 24 2023 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 22-Apr 24 2023

             Apr 22       Apr 23       Apr 24
00-03UT       2.00         2.67         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       3.00         2.00         6.33 (G2)
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       0.67         1.33         4.67 (G1)
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         4.00     
15-18UT       1.67         2.33         3.33     
18-21UT       2.33         3.00         3.33     
21-00UT       2.67         5.00 (G1)    3.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 23 Apr with the onset
of CME activity followed by G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm
conditions on 24 Apr with the passage of the 21 Apr CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2023

              Apr 22  Apr 23  Apr 24
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach the S1 (Minor) threshold on 22-24 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 21 2023 1812 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2023

              Apr 22        Apr 23        Apr 24
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 22-24 Apr.

Lead Time: 28.50 hour(s)
Difference: -12.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-04-22T12:30Z

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